Friday, September 24, 2010

Ascribing Morality Where None Exists

Andrew Sullivan says:
A reminder of the vast financial risks they take to save and improve lives...
From the linked article:
We did it, naturally, because we expected to make a profit out of it in the end.
Who would have thought that pharmaceutical companies, like all companies, are simply attempting to maximize their profits? If lives are saved as a result, that is a positive side effect, but profit is the guiding principle.

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Quote of the Day

Dan Rhiel, on Karl Rove:
Especially given his comments on Fox News tonight, until this is resolved, it seems impossible to trust Rove as an objective analyst.

Monday, September 13, 2010

I Hate Telus

So, their website kindly informs me that they're available Monday to Friday, from 7:30 a.m. I call them up, go through a ridiculous series of keying in numbers (including telling them twice that I would like to speak English), and finally get the message that they are not open yet. Apparently, they open at 8:00 a.m. That sort of useful information should really be put on their website.

Monday, September 6, 2010

Everything Wrong With Politics

Everything wrong with politics is summed up in this article in the Washington Post (and especially the ensuing comments):
"The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice." According media reports, this quote keeping Obama company on his wheat-colored carpet is from King.
Except it's not a King quote.
To back this up, we are provided with a quote from Theodore Parker:
Parker said in 1853: "I do not pretend to understand the moral universe; the arc is a long one. . . . But from what I see I am sure it bends toward justice."
Why would Obama attribute the quote to King? Because King would often say:
"How long? Not long." He would finish in a flourish: "Not long, because the arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice."
In summary, Obama's rug quotes King, who was inspired by Theodore Parker's imagery. Of course, if the quote were to have been attributed to Parker, we would undoubtedly be reading a story about how Parker never actually said that, and that instead the quote was from King. And this is why I am seriously considering abandoning politics.

Sunday, August 15, 2010

Anecdata

Andrew Sullivan has a very annoying habit of giving was too much credit to anecdotes relayed by his readers. His most recent letter from a reader shows how misleading it can be to rely on anecdotes:
Unfortunately, in the mid 90s, I spent just over four years (52 months) in prison. 
[snip]
While there were instances of sex abuse in some of the prisons I visited, they were few and far between.
[snip]
I firmly believe that the sex abuse in prison is not a significant enough problem to warrant any action from the federal government.
You can rely on this compelling anecdote, or you can rely on the US Justice Department's Bureau of Justice Statistics:
According to the report, released today by the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), “Sexual Victimization in State and Federal Prisons Reported by Inmates, 2007,” 4.5 percent of the state and federal prisoners surveyed reported sexual victimization in the past 12 months. Given a national prison population of 1,570,861, the BJS findings suggest that in one year alone more than 70,000 prisoners were sexually abused.
While the sexual abuse rate is not as high as the "they're raping everybody in here" image often portrayed in the media, it is way higher than a decent society should ever allow it to be. Or, if you didn't happen to be abused during your years in jail, "not a significant enough problem to warrant any action".

Paul Ryan Lies To Your Face

Paul Ryan's recent op-ed should demolish any credibility he has left. He writes:
And the Congressional Budget Office said in March that the health-care overhaul's Medicare savings "would be used to pay for other spending and therefore would not enhance the ability of the government to pay for future Medicare benefits."
This sounds rather dire. Fortunately, the linked document does not say that. According to the CBO, "the majority of the HI trust fund savings ... would be used to pay for other spending". There is a massive difference between the HI (a.k.a. Medicare Part A) trust fund and Medicare. Medicare includes Part A and Part B. Obamacare reduced the Part A unfunded obligations by $11 trillion, and Part B by $5.5 trillion. Even if all (not just "a majority") of the savings from Part A were used for other spending, Obamacare still reduced the unfunded obligations facing America by $5.5 trillion. This is much better than the $9.7 trillion increase due to Medicare Part D, for which Ryan voted.

Paul Ryan, Deficit Fraudster

Anyone who still listens to Paul Ryan is an idiot. In Friday's Washington Post, Ryan has an op-ed entitled A road map to saving Medicare. He begins by stating:
The annual analysis of Medicare's financial health released by the program's trustees on Aug. 5 led some Democrats to claim that Medicare's imminent bankruptcy has been delayed, thanks to the creation of their health entitlement program.
Unfortunately, the first link goes to socialsecurity.gov, which is not generally the go-to resource for Medicare information. Not a good start. Ryan continues:
Last year's report revealed a $38 trillion shortfall over the next 75 years. This year the shortfall appears to have decreased, but only after the Democrats' health bill cut $529 billion from Medicare. This apparent improvement was the basis for Democratic celebration -- even though the program remains tens of trillions of dollars in the hole.
I can't figure out from whence he got the $38 trillion number. If you go to the Medicare trustees' report for 2009 (pdf), you will find a 75-year "unfunded obligation" of $13.4 trillion for Medicare Part A (Hospital Insurance), $23.2 trillion for Part B (Medical Insurance), and $9.2 trillion for Part D (prescription drug plans). Adding the unfunded obligations for Part A and Part B (and ignoring Part D*) gives $36.6 trillion, which is pretty close to Ryan's figure.
Now, if you look at the Medicare trustees' report for 2010 (pdf), the corresponding numbers are $2.4 trillion for Part A, $17.7 trillion for Part B, and $9.7 trillion for Part D. The sum of unfunded obligations for Part A and Part B is $20.1 trillion.
The upshot of this year's report is that Obamacare knocked $16.5 trillion off of the unfunded obligations of Medicare. To Ryan, however, this doesn't count because... well, he doesn't really explain why.

* It's really funny that Ryan appears to be ignoring the cost of Medicare Part D. According to the actuaries, Part D has an unfunded obligation of $9.7 trillion, so you would think a deficit hawk would be concerned about the program. Of course, in 2003, Paul Ryan, self-proclaimed deficit hawk, voted for Part D. I'll leave the conclusions to you.

Religious Disaffiliation

Via Andrew Sullivan, there is a new study by Philip Schwadel in the Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion*.   Sullivan summarizes the article thusly:
A new study published in the Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion finds that Americans between the ages of 36 to 50 are more loyal to religion than Baby Boomers.
In his study, Schwadel is mainly interested in people who disaffiliate from a religion. This means that they were raised with a religion, but now report no religious preference. Schwadel concludes:
Additionally, the probability of nonaffiliation grew from between .06 and .08 in the 1970s and 1980s to almost .16 in 2006. Estimated growth in nonaffiliation, however, is notably smaller when being raised with no religious affiliation is constrained to 3 percent of respondents. These results suggest that a substantial proportion of the growth in nonaffiliation is due to more Americans being raised with no religious preference rather than solely being due to an increase in disaffiliation among adults.
In the Reuters article, Schwadel is quoted as saying the trend "is good news for those who worry about declining religious adherence." I would have to disagree. Even after controlling for being raised with no religious affiliation, Americans between the ages of 36 and 50 are still disaffiliating from religion, even if they are doing so at a slower rate than Baby Boomers. Even worse, the real world is not controlling for being raised with no religious affiliation. In fact, the probability of being raised without a religious affiliation is increasing.
It would be very interesting to see the rate of religious affiliation among those raised without a religious affiliation. To me, this represents the biggest opportunity for religions, as it is a growing demographic group.

* Note: I do not understand the statistics involved in the study. However, according to Wikipedia, the journal is peer-reviewed, with a 2008 impact factor of 0.907, which places it 37th of the 99 sociology journals ranked by Journal Citation Reports.

The Weakness of the Case Against Tenure

From Christopher Beam at Slate:
Mark C. Taylor ... calculates that someone who serves as an associate professor with tenure for five years and then becomes a full professor for 30 years costs a private university $12.2 million. Public universities pay $10 million over the same period. And because most universities pay tenured professors out of their endowments, each professor freezes up tens of millions in otherwise-liquid endowment money for a generation. University debt jumped 54 percent last year, with an average debt of $168 million. If the average university tenured about 15 fewer professors, they'd be in the black.
This has to be the worst math I have seen in a while. Using the private university's cost of $12.2 million over 35 years, we get an annual cost of just under $350,000 per professor. Note that the median salary for full professors in law (the highest-paid field for professors) is $136,634, so the majority of the cost per professor is not actually the professor's salary. Beam shows his numerical illiteracy by saying that by simply having about 15 fewer professors, they would not be in debt. Of course, the university would have needed to have 15 fewer tenured professors over the past 35 years to accomplish this savings. Of course, cutting 15 tenured professors would also have a fairly substantial negative impact on the university as a whole. Either class sizes would have to increase (bad for students), professors would have to teach more courses (bad for professors), or fewer students would be admitted (bad for the university's revenue). To lightly toss off the suggestion to fire 15 professors suggests that Beam does not have even a basic understanding of how a university operates. Lastly, here is Beam concluding the article:
Evergreen State College in Washington implemented renewable contracts back in 1971. Florida Gulf Coast University scrapped tenure when it was established in 1991. Boston University now offers salary premiums to professors who decide not to take tenure. Market forces will drive other universities to follow suit, whether they want to or not.
So, Boston University has found that cutting tenure requires an increase in salary. What an awesome money-saving technique!

Saturday, August 14, 2010

Why I Hate Argument By Analogy

It's nice to see liberal oxes gored in a magazine for liberals. John McWhorter has a good review of Amy Wax's book "Race, Wrongs, and Remedies: Group Justice in the 21st Century" in TNR. I would say that overall, McWhorter underestimates the effect of discrimination (current and past) on black culture. However, that is not what I want to talk about. McWhorter begins by recounting a parable from the book:
Wax appeals to a parable in which a pedestrian is run over by a truck and must learn to walk again. The truck driver pays the pedestrian’s medical bills, but the only way the pedestrian will walk again is through his own efforts. The pedestrian may insist that the driver do more, that justice has not occurred until the driver has himself made the pedestrian learn to walk again. But the sad fact is that justice, under this analysis, is impossible. The legal theory about remedies, Wax points out, grapples with this inconvenience—and the history of the descendants of African slaves, no matter how horrific, cannot upend its implacable logic. As she puts it, “That blacks did not, in an important sense, cause their current predicament does not preclude charging them with alleviating it if nothing else will work.”
Accepting this for argument's sake, how can you reconcile this with Wax's rhetorical question:
“Is it possible to pursue an arduous program of self-improvement while simultaneously thinking of oneself as a victim of grievous mistreatment and of one’s shortcomings as a product of external forces?” 
Now think back to the pedestrian analogy. Does anyone else see a problem?

Thursday, August 12, 2010

How to Conquer America

I used to enjoy reading Cal Thomas back when I read Townhall.com. His most recent column, however...
A preacher might develop a good sermon on how nations fare when they mock God.
No less a theological thinker than Abraham Lincoln concluded that our Civil War might have been God's judgment for America's tolerance of slavery. If that were so, why should "the Almighty," as Lincoln frequently referred to God, stay His hand in the face of our celebration of same-sex marriage?
As Thomas might say, "A preacher might develop a good sermon on how Argentina, Belgium, Canada, Iceland, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, South Africa, Spain and Sweden fared after they mocked God by legalizing same-sex marriage."
Being a reasonable person, I have to at least laud Thomas for a consistent set of beliefs. In addition to same sex marriage, he also opposes "the birth control pill (sex without biological consequences), 'no-fault divorce' (nullifying 'until death us do part'), cohabitation, easily available pornography, and a tolerance for just about anything except those who deem something intolerable." Luckily, this is not a winning election platform, and I doubt it ever will be.

Edit: I forgot to include the funniest quote:
Most great powers unravel from within before invading armies (or in America's case, terrorists) conquer them.
 Terrorists will conquer America, but only after America has already unraveled from within?

Gay Marriage

Andrew Sullivan has a great post up discussing gay marriage in the United States. You should read the whole thing. However, this one quote is dreadfully wrong:
And the process of litigation - the public educative function of the courts - has clearly pushed opinion in favor over the years. Just having this issue in the public realm as one generation grew up has transformed public opinion. I see this dynamic as a distinctly American one, where the three branches of government and the people address emerging social issues in a messy, but healthy way.
To me, this sounds very similar to how same-sex marriage was legalized in Canada. In 1999, the Supreme Court of Canada ruled that same-sex couples have the right to civil unions. Then, a series of provincial court rulings legalized same-sex marriage in various provinces. By 2005, same-sex marriage was legal in 8 of 10 provinces (with Alberta and PEI abstaining) and 1 territory (go Yukon territory!). In 2005, Paul Martin's Liberal minority government passed a law legalizing same-sex marriage in all of Canada. In 2006, Stephen Harper's Conservative minority attempted to re-open the debate, but lost the vote by a margin of 175-123.
Mark Lehman has done some interesting work (pdf) on the change in Canadians' attitudes towards same-sex marriage.
In large part, the majority support that citizens held by 2004 came about as the result of shifts in attitudes, values, and beliefs, rather than because of demographic factors.
In short, rather than having opponents of same-sex marriage die of old age, public opinion changed because individuals' opinions changed. And here is the graph:


To paraphrase Sullivan:
And the process of litigation - the public educative function of the courts - has clearly pushed opinion in favor over the years. Just having this issue in the public realm as one generation grew up has transformed public opinion. I see this dynamic as a distinctly democratic one, where the three branches of government and the people address emerging social issues in a messy, but healthy way.

The Joy of Statistics

Allahpundit has a post about a new CNN poll on gay marriage in the United States. Allahpundit somehow manages to write the following:
It’s hard to draw strong lessons from a three-point swing, which is within the margin of error, but it does point towards the possibility...
Allahpundit goes on to write some more about the subject, but the reader only needs to understand 5 words: "within the margin of error".

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Does Anybody Read Literature Anymore?

Via Matthew Yglesias, I discovered that Newsweek has an article entitled A Modest Proposal: the Pelosi-Boehner Speaker Debates. Really? Newsweek considers that a modest proposal? My more modest proposal: Pelosi and Boehner should have to have a speed-eating contest. Pelosi must eat one of Boehner's daughters, and Boehner must eat one of Pelosi's children. Whoever eats the fastest wins the house. Let's see who is hungrier for the House.

Anchor Babies

Anchor babies are everywhere. But really, aren't all babies anchor babies, as they drag down your hopes, dreams, and ambitions, down to Davy Jones' Locker, where they can be glimpsed only on the rarest of occasions, sepia-toned from the scotch lacing the empty glass into which you stare.

Monday, August 9, 2010

Know Your Fascist Dictators

Who is the "reigning undisputed fascist dictator of the 20th century"? Apparently, it's Mussolini, who must have beat Hitler on points in a disputed title fight.

Saturday, August 7, 2010

Why Being a Research Assistant Sometimes Sucks

This post could be alternative titled "Why Being a Professor Sometimes Rules". From an interesting paper (pdf) I've been reading:
Two hundred and forty-three introductory psychology students at the University of Virginia volunteered for a study entitled “Choosing College Courses.”
[snip]
Their responses were later coded by a research assistant who was unaware of the subjects' condition. She assigned subjects a 1 for each piece of information recalled correctly, a 0 for each piece not recalled, and a -1 for each piece recalled incorrectly. One of the authors also coded the recall questionnaires of 7 subjects; his codings agreed with the research assistant's 94% of the time.
The research assistant had to do almost 35 times more grunt work than the professor. I wish I had a research assistant.

Friday, August 6, 2010

Censorship

This post by Francisco Toro on censorship in Venezuela is very insightful:
Welcome to the world of twenty-first century censorship: censorship without censors. The Chávez government operates nothing so crass and cumbersome as an old-fashioned censorship board. Instead, by keeping broadcast editors and station managers under the vague but constant threat of shutdown, it relies on them to silence their organizations. And it is wildly effective.
This reminds me a lot of the argument I have heard against the MPAA (the people responsible for rating movies in America) and the FCC (the governmental organisation responsible for regulating radio and television broadcasting in America).
Of course, this is not to say that the self-censorship imposed by the MPAA and the FCC is anything near the censorship imposed by the Chávez government in Venezuela. The censorship by the MPAA and the FCC is stilting the American conversation about profanity and sexuality. The censorship by Chávez is tearing down the adversarial media, one of the most important pillars of a liberal society.

Thursday, August 5, 2010

The Death of Progressive Values

This guest post by Michelle Cottle reads like a right-wing parody of progressive values:
“[Bristol] doesn’t want him in Hollywood. … She wants him to sort of be like Todd Palin in the background while she does the running around. Levi, on the other hand, is not ready to settle into that role.”
I ask you: How awesome is that? It seems Bristol Palin has been raised to assume that a man’s role is that of supportive helpmeet, that it is Dad who’s supposed to keep the home fires burning while Mom goes out and sets the world on fire. If that’s not a progressive perspective on gender roles, I don’t know what is. Way to fly that feminist flag, Sarah! And, oh yes, you too Todd.
 Really? That is exactly the same attitude that progressives rightfully dismiss when it goes the other way. How ugly is it? Read it the other way:
Levi wants Bristol to be in the background while he does the running around. Bristol, on the other hand, is not ready to settle into that role.
I ask you: How awesome is that? It seems Levi Johnson has been raised to assume that a woman’s role is that of supportive helpmeet, that it is Mom who’s supposed to keep the home fires burning while Dad goes out and sets the world on fire. If that’s not a progressive perspective on gender roles, I don’t know what is.
 In answer to her implied question, I would say that the progressive perspective on gender roles is that both men and women should be able to work outside the home, or be stay-at-home parents, or anything in between. The exact roles each partner plays should depend on their personal goals and desires, and should be agreed to by both partners. An assumption that either partner is "supposed to keep the home fires burning" is a slap in the face to both of them.

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Muslim Women Foil Airport Security

This YouTube video is making the rounds. Note the scary music:


The women apparently managed to get on the plane without the gate agent checking to verify their identity. The gate agent is an airline employee, who is required (apparently by federal law) to check the identity of everyone just before they board the plane.
To me, the at-the-gate ID check has always been the most ridiculous part of airline security. To get to the gate, you must pass through the security checkpoint, which is staffed by federal employees from CATSA. During this security check, the CATSA employee must verify your identity using photo ID (note: if they got through the security check without showing their faces, this is obviously a massive breach of security). However, for some reason, after having confirmed your ID at security, the federal government thinks that you need to re-confirm your identity at the gate.
I am having a very difficult time imagining a terrorist scenario which the gate check would prevent. Maybe two terrorists book flights for different planes, get through security, then decide to switch tickets so that they can... do something terrorist-y.

I Don't Know Who Steven Greenhut Is...

But I know that he is not an honest columnist. Writing about a story in the Sacramento Bee about rising crime in California state parks, Greenhut says:
It refers to "grave-robbing" – or, more accurately, people who remove Indian artifacts, such as arrowheads, from a park.
From the article:
Grave-robbing at Tolowa Dunes State Park on the far North Coast, which left American Indian remains unearthed.
[snip] 
An extreme case occurred in April at the remote Tolowa Dunes park in Del Norte County. Grave robbers entered the Yontocket Indian Memorial Cemetery to dig up treasures such as pottery and arrowheads. A $2,000 reward has been offered.
"Or, more accurately, people who remove Indian artifacts, such as arrowheads, from a park."
Reading Greenhut, it is rather apparent that he has never spent much time outdoors. Only someone who has avoided nature could ridicule people who "want more 'boots on the ground' to catch average folks who might have a bonfire". Similarly Greenhut is outraged that "park rangers extinguish 'illegal campfires'" [scare quotes in original].
After all, it's not like, according to the National Interagency Fire Center, humans caused 85% of  wildland fires in California between 2001 and 2009, accounting for 70% of acres burned.

Afghanistan Advice from Rambo III

Rambo III, dedicated to "the gallant people of Vietnam", includes this great scene where Col. Samuel Trautman tells the Russian why he is doomed to defeat:

Monday, August 2, 2010

Steve Janke's Awful Arguments Against the Long Census

This post by Steve Janke appears to be a troll imitating a knee-jerk conservative. He includes this stunning piece of insight:
Are they earning based on their learning? Well, the answer to that question is yes, always, because the market decides what the right price is.
It is almost as if Janke has never heard of the problem immigrant professionals have obtaining credentials to practice their profession in Canada. For example, there are 4,000 foreign-trained doctors in Ontario who cannot practice due to lack of Canadian credentials. There are also many foreign-trained engineers with this problem:
Michael Wu, a geotechnical engineer from China, is a classic example of what's happening. Accepted as a landed immigrant last spring, he came here with his wife and child, leaving behind a relatively prosperous life in Beijing, and now works for $7 an hour in a Vancouver chocolate factory.
Does Janke seriously believe that Canada is better off having Wu, who has a PhD, work at $7 per hour making chocolate?
In a previous post, Janke argues against the long form census:
Why does the Federation of Canadian Municipalities need national census data? It shouldn't.
 If you look at the open letter from the FCM (pdf), however, you will see that they do in fact need national census data:

In fact, over 25 pieces of federal legislation alone require Census data in order to allocate funds and target and evaluate services, with many more examples at the provincial, territorial and municipal levels.
 Janke:
 If a municipality needs demographic data for the municipality, then it should run its own survey.
However, if all municipalities need this data, having each municipality run its own survey is an extremely inefficient use of taxpayers' money.

Iran's Evil Ambitions

Over at Small Dead Animals, there's some juxtaposing going on:
Expiration of Bush Tax Cuts Would Cost Families Thousands in 2011, Study Shows
[snip]
Iran's Leader Introduces Plan to Encourage Population Growth by Paying Families
As you can see here, Iran has a long-term plan to pass the US in population. Iran has a 2008 population of 71,956,322 and a growth rate of 1.30831%. America has a 2009 population of 307,006,550 and a 2008 growth rate of 0.91518%. Assuming these patterns continue forever (and why would they not?), in 2379, Iran will surpass the U.S. in population. They will each have 8.9 billion people.
And this is when Iran will attack!

McArdle's Addled Thoughts on Tenure

This post by Megan McArdle is a bit old, but I think it is important to expose the utter intellectual bankruptcy of her arguments. This will be a long post.
The arguments for academic tenure have always struck me as pretty weak, and more to the point, transparently self-serving.
The debate over tenure is, like most debates about academia, almost entirely between academics. As such, any academic arguing for tenure will be "transparently self-serving", whereas any academic arguing against tenure will be a brave soul fighting against their best interests. This, however, says nothing about the quality of the arguments either for or against tenure. 
The best you can say of the system is that it preserves a sort of continuity in schools that is desireable for the purposes of cultivating alumni donations.
Really? This is the best you can say of the system? You can't say anything about it allowing professors to do controversial research, or that it helps to shift the balance of power away from university administrators (who often have no long-term allegiance or loyalty to the university) towards professors (who have a powerful interest in having a well-run university).
But the cost of such a system is simply staggering.
Consider what the academic job market now looks like. You have a small elite on top who have lifetime employment regardless of how little work they do.
This is simply not true. While a professor can surely slack off after gaining tenure, they still have to teach courses.
This lifetime employment commences somewhere between 35 and 40. For the ten-to-fifteen years before that, they spend their lives in pursuit of the brass ring. They live in poverty suck up to professors, and publish, for one must publish to be tenured.
The only people in a university who could be said to "live in poverty" are graduate students. Abolishing tenure would do nothing to alleviate the chronic money problems of graduate students. Before getting tenure, a professor works as an assistant professor, where salaries range from a median of $44,731 for a new assistant professor in "Theology and Religious Vocations", to $81,005 for an assistant professor in "Legal Professions and Studies".
It's very unfortunate if you don't have anything much worth saying; you need to publish anyway, in order to improve your chances. Fortunately, for the needy tenure seeker, a bevy of journals have sprung up that will print your trivial contributions. If nothing else, they provide a nice simple model which helps introductory economics professors explain Say's Law.
Professors and graduate students who "don't have anything much worth saying" tend not to get published. When they do get published, they get published in lesser journals. Although it is a flawed metric in many ways, the impact factor attempts to provide tenure committees with a basis for determining the impact of the candidate's work. Simply put, tenure-track professors who publish rarely, and in second-rate journals, tend not to get tenure.
More importantly, though, abolishing tenure would do nothing to alleviate this problem. Even if there were no tenure-track positions, universities would need a way to rate their professors. This rating system would undoubtedly look almost exactly like the system currently used for establishing tenure.
At the end of the process, most of the aspirants do not have tenure; they have dropped out, or been dropped, at some point along the way. Meanwhile, the system has ripped up their lives in other ways. They've invested their whole youth, and are back on the job market near entry level at an age when most of their peers have spent ten years building up marketable skills.
Academia as a profession is best looked at as a tournament model, similar to professional sports. The problems McArdle cites above are caused by too many applicants seeking too few academic jobs. As a result, many applicants must be weeded out before a winner is finally selected. The only way that abolishing tenure could solve this problem would be if it somehow increase the number of jobs available (highly unlikely), or if it reduced the number of candidates for each job. However, with fewer candidates for each job, the quality of the selected candidate would also decrease. Such a trade-off (or any trade-off, in fact) is never mentioned by McArdle.
Many of them will have seen relationships ripped apart by the difficulties of finding not one, but two tenure-track jobs in the same area.
This is a real problem, but it cannot be fixed by getting rid of tenure. In Canada, a number of universities have started spousal hiring programs. If a newly hired professor has a spouse who is also seeking a job as a professor, the university makes an effort to hire the spouse as well. Of course, granting preferential treatment to the spouse of a faculty member "can compromise the bigger principles of open hiring". Among people who actually care about the problem of finding jobs for academic couples, this is the debate that is being argued. Tenure has very little to do with the debate.
Others will have invested their early thirties in a college town with no other industry, forcing them to move elsewhere to restart both their careers and their social lives.
Of course, if there weren't any tenure, a professor in her mid-40s who is fired would face the exact same problem. Except, of course, that she would have put in an extra 10 years in the college town. How exactly is this preferable?
Or perhaps they string along adjuncting at near-poverty wages, unable to quite leave the academy that has abused them for so long.
It's funny that McArdle, who is such an advocate of personal freedom when it comes to payday loans for the poor, suddenly has her heart-strings tugged by the thought of PhD's working at "near-poverty wages" in the hope of getting a job as a professor.
Is this producing better education? Doubtful; there's no particular relationship between scholarship and the ability to teach.
Here, McArdle is arguing that, if our goal is to produce better education, we should judge professors more on their ability to teach. I agree wholeheartedly. In fact, I think there should be a greater push towards hiring great teachers for most introductory-level courses, and have great researchers teach the more advanced courses. However, this issue, like most of the issues McArdle raises, has very little to do with tenure.
How about valuable scholarship? Well, define valuable--in many liberal arts fields, the only possible consumer of the research in question is a handful of scholars in the same field. That sort of research is valuable in the same way that children's craft projects are priceless--to their mothers. Basically, these people are supporting an expensive hobby with a sideline business certifying the ability of certain twenty-year olds to write in complete sentences.
Assuming her premise to be true, what does this have to do with tenure? McArdle is arguing that in many liberal arts fields, the research being performed is useless, and the teaching performed by the professors is the only socially valuable part of their job. It is unclear why eliminating tenure would change this in any way.
And what about the people who do get tenure, and are producing scholarship in areas that other people care about? Doesn't tenure protect free intellectual inquiry? Diversity of thought? Doesn't it allow teachers to be more demanding of students?
Finally, halfway through her post, McArdle decides to join the actual debate that is occurring regarding tenure. Her argument:
Perhaps--but the question is, at what point? Most scholars in their sixties are not producing path-breaking new research, but they are precisely the people that tenure protects.
The implication of what McArdle is arguing is rather scary. She is effectively arguing that most older academics would be fired if tenure were abolished. This is a few paragraphs after she argues against academia because it causes people to waste their youth, and enter the job market at entry level after their peers have spent years "building up marketable skills".
Scholars in their twenties and thirties, on the other hand, have no academic freedom at all.
No academic freedom at all? Really?
Indeed, because tenure raises the stakes so high, the vetting of future employees is much more careful--and the candidates, who know this, are almost certainly more careful than they would be if they were on more ordinary employment contracts.
This is almost definitely true. However, there is clearly a trade-off involved here. After obtaining tenure, academics have significantly more freedom then they would ever have under "more ordinary employment contracts". McArdle does not try to argue that the trade-off she proposes is superior. In fact, she argues that "the people that tenure protects" are "scholars in their sixties" who "are not producing path-breaking new research". This is simply wrong.
As a result, the process of getting a degree, getting a job, and getting tenure has stretched out to cover one's whole youth. So tenure makes young scholars--the kind most likely to attack a dominant paradigm--probably more careful than they would be under more normal employment process.
This may be true, but it also hides a larger truth. The best way to gain the attention of a tenure committee is to produce ground-breaking research that replaces the current paradigm. Universities love to have professors who can be called "path-breaking".
The same is true of diversity. Academics within the tenure system are probably more careful about weeding out heresy, because they'll be stuck with it if it manages to sneak in.
So, within the tenure system, academics will weed out heresy because they will be stuck with it forever. By implication, without a tenure system, these same academics would allow the heresy to flourish because they know they can weed it out whenever they want. This is exactly what tenure is designed to prevent.
Tenure can easily be used to entrench the ideological or scholarly commitments of a department's powerful members, reducing diversity rather than enhancing it.
So can any other hiring system. This has nothing to do with tenure, but rather with the method for rating professors.
The current tenure system only protects revolutionary, dangerous ideas to the extent that they spring full blown from an academic's head after he has secured tenure, startling the hell out of everyone who hired him. Or perhaps after he's secured his full professorship. Or after he's managed to move to a better class of research institution with a nicer salary.  
Since I don't know of many cases where this has happened, I find it hard to believe that tenure is crucial to preserving the spirit of free inquiry at our nation's colleges.
Well, if McArdle does not know of many cases where this has happened, that settles it for me.
I'm sure it's protected more than one scholar from getting fired after making stupid remarks to a class. And we would all of us--not just academics--like to be immune from getting fired for making stupid remarks. But what's not clear to me is that this has, in any instance, protected Very Important Scholarship from being censored for the benefit of Mrs. Grundy. 
Even if it were, I'd want to know if all that Very Important Scholarship were worth the enormous cost of this outmoded system. And advocates would have a steep uphill battle to convince me that it is.
McArdle speaks of the "enormous cost" of the tenure system, but most of the costs she describes (wasted youth, publishing useless articles, academic couples) exist independent of the tenure system. For an economics blogger, it is also surprising that she fails to mention the significant increase in salaries that would be required as compensation for no longer having tenure.

What Does the ADL Do?

There has been a lot of commentary about the Anti-Defamation League's decision to oppose the proposed mosque near Ground Zero. One thing that I found weird was, in the ADL's statement about the proposed mosque, the tagline:
The Anti-Defamation League, founded in 1913, is the world's leading organization fighting anti-Semitism through programs and services that counteract hatred, prejudice and bigotry.
So, by preventing Muslims (not al Qaeda terrorists, but American Muslims) from building a mosque, they are counteracting "hatred, prejudice and bigotry", all in pursuit of the goal of "fighting anti-Semitism". The only way this makes any sense is if you assume that the mosque itself will teach hatred, prejudice and bigotry. I have not seen any convincing evidence that this would be the case.

Do They Actually Believe That

Canada Control Works has adapted regenerative braking to pumpjacks, thereby reducing their energy consumption. According to the company, during an 11-month trial, "165,763 kilowatt hours were consumed to run the pumpjack, but 92,340 kilowatt hours were also generated". The regenerative braking technology reduces the energy consumption of pumpjacks by 55.7%, saving $1,000 per month in electricity. Obviously, this is an example of the sort of innovation that is needed (across all sectors of the economy) to help solve our energy problems.
Small Dead Animals sees it differently:
Who needs windmills when you've got pumpjacks?
SDA is apparently unaware that these improved pumpjacks still consume significant amounts of electricity. In fact, they require about 6,674 kWh of electricity per month to operate ((165,763 kWh used - 92,340 kWh generated) / 11 months).

Your Logic Is Beyond Me

As someone who is ambiguously ambidextrous, I am rather envious of Unambiguously Ambidextrous. Apparently, mullah Omar has put out a five-point directive for Taliban fighters:
1. Fight coalition forces to the death without withdrawing or surrendering; attempt to capture coalition forces whenever possible.

Unambiguously Ambidextrous:
Regarding the first directive, it would appear that the so-called “torture-war crimes” conundrum has been put to rest. Not that this will likely dissuade people from believing that Afghans are still being tortured “in our name.”
The Taliban are now ordered to fight to the death, while trying to capture coalition forces. This, of course, means that we are no longer turning Afghans over to our local allies for torture. QED.
Bonus logic: The linked post includes the Time cover picture of the girl whose nose and ears were cut off by the Taliban. The title of the post is "But To Some People, We’re The Bad Guys In Afghanistan". Taliban bad, coalition good.

Simple Answers to Simple Questions

Ezra Levant at the Ottawa Sun has a list of questions in today's article:
So, should the burka be banned?
Luckily, he answers this one for us.
It’s anathema for a free country like Canada to tell citizens how to dress.
The same liberty that allows the rest of us to dress as we like is the liberty that allows a woman to hide her face.
But what about in a bank? Should masked women, Muslim or not, be allowed into a bank?
I would say yes. However, as private businesses, I would allow banks to make that decision themselves.
If that’s okay, how about a man in a ski mask?
Again, I would say yes. Does Levant seriously think that a policy against ski masks in banks would cause an increase in bank robberies?
How about testifying in court?
Yes.
Who else can hide their eyes and facial expressions while condemning an accused or swearing to their own innocence?
Apparently, in New Hampshire this is allowed.
And why stop at witnesses — what about judges or police officers in a burka?
I don't mind judges in burkas. However, a burka would clearly impede a police officer from performing her duty, so I would not allow it.
What about ID cards like a driver’s licence?
Obviously not. This seems like a massive red herring to me. It doesn't surprise me that some random Muslim thinks she should be allowed to wear a burqa for her driver's license photo. However, considering the rules for passport photos, I don't think that any Canadian government is going to allow burqas in photo identification.
What point is an ID card if it doesn’t actually ID you?
There is none. That is why ID cards have to show your face.
Can you vote with a mask on?
Yes, provided you slip it off for a moment to allow the poll worker to verify your identity.
Board a plane?
Yes, provided you slip the mask off for a moment to allow the security official to verify your identity.
If a burka is okay, how about a Ku Klux Klan mask?
Yup. However, I would advise against it, as wearing a Ku Klux Klan mask tends to reflect poorly on the wearer.
But more than all that, is wearing a burka truly an act of individual liberty?
It depends. And this is what Levant then admits:
For some it is. But for others, it is a manifestation of tyranny — a brutal husband demanding submission; a radical imam threatening frightened immigrant women. 
This is a far cry from the Ezra Levant who rallies for liberty and freedom from kangaroo human rights commissions (incidentally, this is a position on which Levant and I agree). Speaking of Section 13, Levant writes, "Ignatieff’s comment from 2006 is more heartening – it shows a respect for freedom of speech, even offensive speech, even offensive speech targeting him." In the case of burqas, Levant's lack of respect for freedom of religion is concerning. In the matter of freedom of speech, he believes that offensive speech must be protected. When it comes to freedom of religion, however, he believes in a hard boundary.
We know from the case of Aqsa Parvez — killed by her father and brother for dressing in western fashion rather than in traditional Islamic clothing — that defying these orders can lead to murder.
I agree that this is a problem. However, it is laughable to believe that banning the burqa would solve this problem. Imagine that you are a man who would be willing to kill his sister or daughter for not wearing a burqa. Now, imagine that the government prevents her from wearing a burqa. Would you allow her to leave the house without a burqa, or would you force her to stay in the house so no one can see her?
In Afghanistan, uncovered women have acid thrown in their faces.
I do not feel that Canadian law should be pro-actively limiting freedoms because of stuff that happens in Afghanistan.
Only 54% of us want a ban? 
I hope that the wording of the question (Canada should follow France. Nobody should be able to cover their faces. It is a matter of public safety and business transparency.) is what caused this number to be so high. I hope.

Sunday, August 1, 2010

Chinese Spies

Calgary Tory MP Rob Anders is accusing the Chinese of trying to gain influence in Canada. Anders says that Chinese agents are offering lucrative business deals and sexual favours to Canadian MPs. In return, the politicians "can provide access to resources or rubber stamp business deals". This sounds like a fairly serious allegation. Unfortunately, he goes off the rails a little bit later:
Anders said he has personally witnessed the sons of two different MPs being seduced by women far too attractive to be interested in these “average looking” guys, including a 14-year-old, in Taiwan.
“There is no way that any of those people could have been anything other than influence peddling agents,” Anders told QMI Agency. “That person is up to something when they knock on your door, minutes after your arrival in a foreign hotel offering themselves to you.”

It seems much more likely that this was a Taiwanese girl who likes white guys. If you are into foreigners, a foreign hotel is a great place to meet them (before they have a chance to meet any other ladies). Assuming that the woman is in fact a Chinese agent. I am having difficulty seeing the sequence of steps required for this to produce any sort of useful information.

  1. Sleep with "average looking" son of Canadian MP.
  2. ???
  3. Profit!

Saturday, July 31, 2010

The (Two Blocks Away From) Ground Zero Mosque

This is really ugly. I guess I just thought that freedom meant the freedom to build houses of worship wherever you want. I was obviously wrong. Right wingers everywhere are upsets about the plans to build a mosque near Ground Zero in New York. It really reminds me of the "First they came for the..." posts that are so common on the right.
Michelle Malkin: First, They Came For The Cartoonists. First, They Came For The Cheerios.
Instapundit: First, They Came For The Pilots. First, They Came For The Bloggers.
Of course, you are not going to see Malkin or Instapundit making the argument, "First, they came for the mosques, and I said nothing, for I was not a mosque."
Note: I think that slippery slope arguments are generally stupid. Usually, they are invoked to argue against a minuscule shift in the status quo, based on the argument that it will inevitably lead to either fascism or communism, depending on the direction of the shift.

The Dastardly New Black Panther Party

The Washington Post is finally getting around to exposing the threat the NBPP poses to America. After a brief summary of the story, they add the inevitable he said/she said:
Abigail Thernstrom, a commission member and a senior fellow at the conservative Manhattan Institute, called it "small potatoes" and said conservatives should pursue more important issues against the Obama administration.
[snip]
Thernstrom said that she did not find Adams's testimony convincing and that the facts of the case raised doubts in her mind, noting that the Black Panthers were standing in front of a majority-black precinct that had voted overwhelmingly for Democrats in previous elections -- not a prime
spot for intimidating white voters. 
Todd Gaziano, director of the center for legal and judicial studies at the conservative Heritage Foundation who also serves on the commission, disagreed. 
"Anyone who has seen the video and who reads [Adams's] testimony knows this is something that needs to be investigated," he said.
Thernstrom offers a fact to support her position. Gaziano essentially says that he believes this needs to be investigated. A pox on both their houses, I say.

Thursday, July 29, 2010

Fun with Numbers

Tom Nelson seems to have figured out that global warming is all a fraud. He has found a bunch of headlines showing areas where the warming is higher than average, and asks, "Can everyplace really be warming much faster than everyplace else?" He provides links to articles claiming that Africa, the North Pole, Australia, Kuwait's waters, Antarctic air, Tibet, Sundarbans' water, China, the U.S. West, the Arctic, Lake Superior, the Himalayas, and the Korean Peninsula. Nelson obviously believes that this is really strong evidence that it's all quackery.
Of course, if you look at a map, you will realize that over 70% of the Earth's surface is water. It would in fact be possible for the entire landmass of Earth to be heating faster than the global average.

Some People Really Hate Muslims

Apparently, the Science Museum in London is running an exhibition entitled 1001 Inventions: Discover the Muslim Heritage in Our World. This exhibition "traces the forgotten story of a thousand years of science from the Muslim world, from the 7th century onwards". According to Toby E. Huff:
Our concern is with the fact that from the eighth century to the end of the fourteenth, Arabic science was probably the most advanced science in the world, greatly surpassing the West and China. In virtually every field of endeavor - in astronomy, alchemy, mathematics, medicine, optics, and so forth - Arab scientists (that is, Middle Eastern individuals primarily using the Arabic language but including Arabs, Iranians, Christians, Jews, and others) were in the forefront of scientific advance. The facts, theories, and scientific speculations contained in their treatises were the most advanced to be had anywhere in the world, including China.
Sounds interesting, doesn't it? It is exactly the sort of thing I would expect to see in a science museum. Of course, if you think that, you are being duped by a vast conspiracy. Alexander Levkovsky:
The main mission of the exhibition is to obscure the hard fact that for the last several centuries the vast Islamic world has contributed almost nothing at all to the great treasury of human civilization!
You see, the exhibition should be focusing on the lack of inventions by Muslims in the last several centuries. This is what a science museum should do. However, it is unclear if this alternative exhibit should also focus on the lack of inventions by Christians during the golden age of Islam. Otherwise, it could rightfully be accused of obscuring the hard fact that from the 8th to the 14th century, the vast Christian world contributed almost nothing at all to the great treasury of human civilization!

Death Panels Exposed

Over at Big Government, Capitol Confidential has exposed the "government's rationing toolbox". At issue is a cancer drug, Avastin, which the FDA is seeking to de-label for breast cancer treatment. From Big Government:
No one disputes that the drug helps extends life for terminal patients.
The National Cancer Institute on E2100, the initial trial to test Avastin:
The results of E2100 had not shown an increase in overall survival
It turns out the actual issue is a new metric being considered for oncology trials, progression-free survival (PFS). The standard metric is overall survival (OS).
The difference between PFS and OS is that PFS measures the time from a patient's random assignment to one treatment arm or another until the patient's cancer begins to grow again or the patient dies from their cancer; whereas OS measures the time from randomization until death from any cause.
 If you follow the link, it is actually a fascinating look at the complexities of the metrics used for oncology research. Near the end of the article, there is a good quote from Dr. Richard Pazdur, the director of the FDA Office of Oncology Drug Products:
I have no problem accepting that, in a lethal disease such as metastatic cancer, delaying progression is a clinical benefit in itself, provided that the magnitude of the benefit is sufficient and the side-effect profile acceptable.
In other words, there is a risk-benefit analysis that must be performed. No one wants an extra month before the cancer begins to grow if it means that they have to endure a horrible side effect during that month. Note that this is a risk-benefit analysis, not a cost-benefit analysis. On Avastin, Dr. Pazdur notes:
Because treatment with Avastin is associated with considerable toxicity, the magnitude of PFS improvement—especially if not supported by an improvement in overall survival—should be substantial, clinically meaningful, and be able to be replicated in additional trials.
By a vote of 12-1, a review by a panel of 13 medical professionals found Avastin to fail this risk-benefit analysis. Or, as Capitol Confidential puts it:
The Avantis case is setting the precedent for the government to arbitrarily deny coverage to millions of American’s based on cost alone.
If Capitol Confidential believes that the decision to de-label Avastin was based "on cost alone", he (she?) must be outraged at the composition of the panel that made the decision. There is not a single economist (PDF) on the Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee! The members all have irrelevant degrees, like M.D., Pharm.D., Ph.D., RN, M.S., F.A.C.P., and D.O. This is the true outrage!

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Back in the DPRK

Apprently, North Korea has a website where you can apply to visit the country. For a mere 2050 Euros (1850 Euros for Korea Friendship Association members), you can visit the Dear Leader. However, you will have to pay an extra 440 Euros for the round trip flight from Beijing to Pyongyang. There are only 20 spots, and the tour leaves August 12th, so make your booking today! You must prepay 350 Euros by credit card to reserve your spot, with the remainder due in cash Euros at the beginning of the trip.
Unfortunately, the following items are banned:

Video-Camera, Plants, animals, drugs, explosives, weapons, any kind of pornography, mass printed propaganda, radio, wireless or satellite communicator (GPS), mobile phone (can be left at airport locker).
Luckily, the following are allowed in the DPRK:
Photo-camera (analog or digital), laptop (without wireless/radio communication devices), PDA, CD Player, MP3
 Of course, you may have difficulty finding a laptop that does not have a built-in wireless.

Bill O'Reilly More Pro-Gay Than Obama

Andrew Sullivan has a post up entitled: "Bill O'Reilly: More Pro-Gay Than Barack Obama". He links to an interview on Leno in which O'Reilly says:
"President Obama has the power to stop this 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell' business. Just sign an executive order. I don't know why it's taking so long—it's not fair. We should stop this nonsense."

Sullivan then adds, "Or maybe just not paralyzed by Clintonian fear." Of course, O'Reilly never says that he supports ending DADT. He just says that Obama could stop it with an executive order. As for "Clintonian fear", on Fox News, this is what O'Reilly had to say about DADT:
It's not about anti-gay. It's about being comfortable in the barracks. It's not about anti-gay.
 Such bold and fearless advocacy for gay rights! No "Clintonian fear" for Papa Bear O'Reilly!

A New Kind of Crazy

Occasionally, while clicking one link after another, you end up stumbling upon something you've never seen before. And so I stumbled upon Pejman Yousefzadeh's blog post entitled Bring Back Dueling:
Of course, I wouldn’t take this position were it not for the fact that codes associated with dueling seek to bring about peaceful resolutions to conflicts before any blood is shed, but even if this were not the case, innocent lives would be saved by ensuring, through the presence and organization of duels regulated by a code of conduct, that noncombatants would be nowhere near the line of fire if antagonists decided to use violence to settle their disputes.
How many gun-related murders do you suppose occur in which the victim had a long-standing grudge against the perpetrator? Remember, you can only have a duel if both people agree. I would guess that most gun murder victims are innocent of any crime. The obvious exception, of course, is gang violence. The article to which Yousefzadeh links, written by Jamie Brooke, offers dueling as a way of avoiding the deaths of innocent bystanders in gang wars:

Much violence is based on a desire for respect and in reaction to perceived slurs in gang dominated sections of society. Outside these gangs the same problems are dealt with entirely differently, however this was not always the case. Medieval knights, noblemen and royals would do anything to be seen as courageous and to preserve their honour, and as is the case with modern city gangs were prepared to die defending that image. The system that was established is that of duelling.

"Much violence is based on a desire for respect and in reaction to perceived slurs in gang dominated sections of society." Assuming for argument's sake that this is true (and I doubt it is), does Brooke seriously believe that he can change the gang culture to one of chivalry? That gang members can be convinced that, rather than shoot the offending speaker on the spot, they ought to challenge them to a duel? Why would you agree to a fair fight if you can shoot them in cold blood on the spot?

Monday, July 26, 2010

Lynching

This article by Jeffrey Lord has been making the rounds, and I have to comment. Shirley Sherrod, the fired USDA official, has said that her uncle was lynched. Lord describes what happened to the uncle:
The arrest was made late at night at Hall's home on a warrant charging Hall with theft of a tire. Hall, a young negro about thirty years of age, was handcuffed and taken by car to the courthouse. As Hall alighted from the car at the courthouse square, the three petitioners began beating him with their fists and with a solid-bar blackjack about eight inches long and weighing two pounds. They claimed Hall had reached for a gun and had used insulting language as he alighted from the car. But after Hall, still handcuffed, had been knocked to the ground, they continued to beat him from fifteen to thirty minutes until he was unconscious. Hall was then dragged feet first through the courthouse yard into the jail and thrown upon the floor, dying. An ambulance was called, and Hall was removed to a hospital, where he died within the hour and without regaining consciousness. There was evidence that Screws held a grudge against Hall, and had threatened to "get" him.
The Supreme Court then ruled:
Upon review of a judgment affirming the conviction, for violation of § 20 of the Criminal Code and conspiracy thereunto, of local law enforcement officers who arrested a negro citizen for a state offense and wrongfully beat him to death, the judgment is reversed with directions for a new trial.
And Lord's following paragraph is:
It's also possible that she knew the truth and chose to embellish it, changing a brutal and fatal beating to a lynching. Anyone who has lived in the American South (as my family once did) and is familiar with American history knows well the dread behind stories of lynch mobs and the Klan. What difference is there between a savage murder by fist and blackjack -- and by dangling rope? Obviously, in the practical sense, none. But in the heyday -- a very long time -- of the Klan, there were frequent (and failed) attempts to pass federal anti-lynching laws. None to pass federal "anti-black jack" or "anti-fisticuffs" laws. Lynching had a peculiar, one is tempted to say grotesque, solitary status as part of the romantic image of the Klan, of the crazed racist. The image stirred by the image of the noosed rope in the hands of a racist lynch mob was, to say the least, frighteningly chilling.
Lord seems to be under the impression that the only way to lynch someone is by "dangling rope". And so, to Lord, Eli Cooper must not have been lynched:
The case of Eli Cooper is illustrative. One night in late summer 1919, a gang of fifteen or twenty white men abducted Cooper, a black man, from his home in Cadwell in Laurens County and transported him to Petway's Gift Church in Dodge County, a few miles away. The gang shot Cooper, set the church on fire, and pitched his body into the flames.
To paraphrase Lord:
What difference is there between a savage murder by [burning] -- and by dangling rope? Obviously, in the practical sense, none. But in the heyday -- a very long time -- of the Klan, there were frequent (and failed) attempts to pass federal anti-lynching laws. None to pass federal "[anti-burning]" laws.
As a side note, where the hell were the editors on this one?

Whoops!

In my previous post about Greg Mankiw's recent article, I forgot to mention my original point. Mankiw has an extended critique of Obama's stimulus in which he seems to accept the Keynesian framework that stimulus, whether through tax cuts or government spending, will increase GDP growth. However, he argues that tax cuts are significantly more effective than government spending. Upon seeing the unemployment rate rise much higher than expected, Obama's economic team scrambled for an explanation. Mankiw writes:
To the question of why their patient — the U.S. economy — did not respond as expected, the Obama team's answer is that the patient was sicker at the beginning of 2009 than they had originally thought, not that they administered the wrong medicine. The spending-heavy fiscal stimulus, they argue, was the right approach and did some good; if the stimulus bill had not been enacted, unemployment today would be even higher. The reason the stimulus failed to cure the economy's woes is not that it was the wrong course of treatment: It simply wasn't a big enough dose. (Hence the repeated calls for a "second stimulus.")
[snip]
The trouble is, we have no way of knowing for sure if the model was in fact correct. To react to a model's failure to predict events accurately by insisting that the model was nonetheless right — as Obama's economic advisors have done — is hardly the most obvious course. Careful economists should instead respond with humility. When their predictions fail — as they often do — they should not dig in their heels, but should instead be willing to go back to their starting assumptions and question their validity.
Mankiw believes that there are two problems with the starting assumptions. "Chief among these considerations is whether government can spend money both quickly and wisely." He goes on to argue that the government cannot. However, looking at the actual stimulus spending, it is clear that the government can in fact "spend money both quickly and wisely". On the spending side, the largest items are "Help states with Medicare costs" ($87.1 billion), "Help states prevent cuts to essential services like education" ($53.6 billion), "Provide money for highways and bridges" ($27.5 billion), "Health coverage under Cobra" ($25.1 billion), and "Increase food assistance" ($20.9 billion). It is difficult to argue that any of these are unwise, and only the highways and bridges money could be considered slow.
The administration's second assumption, meanwhile, is a matter of academic theories about the sizes of the relevant economic multipliers.
Obama's stimulus plan assumed that the multiplier for direct spending would be 1.57, while the tax-cut multiplier should be 0.99. Mankiw does not argue with the direct spending multiplier, but claims (based on the work of Romer & Romer) that the tax-cut multiplier should be 3. Unfortunately for Mankiw, this destroys his own argument.
Throughout the article, Mankiw implies that the Obama team leaned too heavily on spending in the stimulus. Never does he inform the reader that, as of April 20, the Obama stimulus was 43% tax cut and 57% direct spending. Using the Obama administration's numbers, the overall multiplier is 1.32 (1.57 * 0.57 + 0.99 * 0.43). Using Mankiw's numbers, the overall multiplier is 2.18 (1.57 * 0.57 + 3 * 0.43). In fact, using Mankiw's preferred multiplier of 3 for the tax-cut portion of the stimulus, the direct spending multiplier could be zero and the overall multiplier would still be 1.29.
As a professor of economics at Harvard, Mankiw must know this. However, he is clearly not seeking to inform his readers about a matter of economics. He is trying to win a political argument about Obama.

Mankiw Does Not Seek to Inform

Reading over Greg Mankiw's recent post on the stimulus, it becomes rather apparent that Mankiw is looking to win a political - rather than economic - argument. Citing a now-famous paper by Romer and Romer, Mankiw states:
The Romers' conclusion, which is at odds with most traditional Keynesian analysis, was that the tax multiplier was 3 — in other words, that every dollar spent on tax cuts would boost GDP by $3. This would mean that the tax multiplier is roughly three times larger than Obama's advisors assumed it was during their policy simulations.
[snip]
But several studies on government-spending multipliers have been conducted using techniques similar to those used by the Romers.
[snip]
Ramey finds a government-spending multiplier of about 1.4 — a figure close to what the Obama administration assumed, but much smaller than the tax multiplier identified by the Romers.
Of course, back in early 2009, Brad Delong made the following comment:
The two studies [Romer and Romer, and Ramey] use very different methodologies. They are not comparable. For example, the Ramey study on the effects of government spending--while a superb contribution to the literature, and one that I have assigned to my graduate students--does not fully control for the tax increases that often accompany spending increases. Thus it is very likely to understate the effects of spending increases alone: her study assesses the impact of the Korean-War military spending increase without taking account of the fact that it was accompanied by a large tax increase.
And so we have Mankiw baldly asserting that "several studies on government-spending multipliers have been conducted using techniques similar to those used by the Romers", and Delong arguing the opposite while offering a persuasive argument about how they are different.
Mankiw offers two more examples of the stimulative superiority of tax cuts. I do not know enough about the first one (Mountford and Uhlig) to comment. However, the second one is garbage:
Alesina and Ardagna then separated those plans that were in fact followed by robust economic growth from those that were not, and compared their characteristics. They found that the stimulus packages that appeared to be successful had cut business and income taxes, while those that evidently did not succeed had increased government spending and transfer payments.
To believe that this proves anything is to be willfully blind. Read Paul Krugman.

Thursday, July 22, 2010

Also at The Daily Caller

From the previous article, I found this gem by Juan Williams. Talking about the Shirley Sherrod episode, Williams writes:
How is it possible that such a bright man as the president repeatedly reacts without the facts when it comes to a topic so explosive as race?
[snip]
How is it possible that the once glorious NAACP – the leading name in America’s fight against racial segregation – has come to the point where it is pushing the first black president to fire anyone – but especially a black woman — on a charge of racism without checking to be sure she was a hateful racist?
The entire first page of the article is spent bashing Obama and the NAACP. After describing the life story of Sherrod, Williams finally gets around to why the scandal happened in the first place:
But then someone – still unknown – took Sherrod’s touching speech and edited it to create the impression that she was a black racist. The editor made it appear that Sherrod claimed to a black audience that she withheld help from a white man because he is white.
That twisted tape was placed for all to see on a right-wing website, BigGovernment.com, as a two and half minute video clip.
[snip]
Everyone – the White House, the Agriculture Department, the anonymous editor, the website – has political dirt and racial guilt all over their hands.
A pox on both their houses, I tell you. Can't we all just agree that they are all equally guilty? Interestingly enough, Williams doesn't assign any blame to Breitbart by name. Perhaps because the article was originally posted on Fox Forum?

The Public Has a Right to Know

Tucker Carlson, on why he is refusing to release the entire text of the e-mails he is excerpting:
The second line of attack we’ve encountered since we began the series is familiar to anyone who has ever published a piece whose subject didn’t like the finished product: “You quoted me out of context!”
The short answer is, no we didn’t. I edited the first four stories myself, and I can say that our reporter Jonathan Strong is as meticulous and fair as anyone I have worked with.
That assurance won’t stop the attacks, of course. So why don’t we publish whatever portions of the Journolist archive we have and end the debate? Because a lot of them have no obvious news value, for one thing.
[snip]
Plus, a lot of the material on Journolist is actually pretty banal. In addition to being partisan hacks, a lot of these guys turn out to be pedestrian thinkers. Disappointing.
Okay, so most of it is "pretty banal" and has "no obvious news value". However, some of the e-mails are obviously interesting enough, with enough "obvious news value", to excerpt on The Daily Caller. If they pass this test, why won't he release the entire e-mail? Are only the excerpts newsworthy and interesting?
However, Carlson does make a valid point when he says:
Anyone on Journolist who claims we quoted him “out of context” can reveal the context himself.
I guess for people in Washington, this is another game of "screw over the opposition", but I was under the impression that the point of journalism is to shine a light. Why, in a spat between two groups of reporters, is neither side willing to release the e-mails over which they are arguing?

Another Blog Post With a Conclusion Listed as a Question?

This post by William Easterly at Aidwatch asks, "Was the poverty of Africa determined in 1000 BC?" Easterly cites an article by Diego Comin, Erick Gong, and himself:
78 percent of the difference in income today between sub-Saharan Africa and Western Europe is explained by technology differences that already existed in 1500 AD – even BEFORE the slave trade and colonialism.
Moreover, these technological differences had already appeared by 1000 BC. The state of technology in 1000 BC has a strong correlation with technology 2500 years later, in 1500 AD.
Whenever looking at a "strong correlation", it is important to ask yourself, "Could some third variable explain both factors?" My immediate thought is there are probably two confounding variables. Firstly, Africa is largely landlocked, with a dearth of navigable rivers, making trade and the diffusion and adoption of technology much more difficult. Secondly, Africa has conditions that are ideal for the spread of tropical diseases such as malaria.
When the authors do not control for these factors, they find that "78 percent of the difference in income today between sub-Saharan Africa and Western Europe is explained by technology differences that already existed in 1500 AD".
However, when the authors add independent variables for "distance to equator", "distance to equator squared", and "landlocked", the regression coefficient for "migration-adjusted technology level in 1500 AD" drops to 1.770 (significant at the 5% level). With this coefficient, only 42% of the difference is attributable to technology differences in 1500 AD.
Lastly, when the authors perform a regression analysis using "landlocked" and "tropical dummy" as independent variables, they find that the regression coefficient for "migration-adjusted technology level in 1500 AD" is 2.590 (significant at the 1% level). This coefficient explains 62% of the difference in income between Europe and Africa in 2002.
I also have a fairly major quibble with the "landlocked" variable. If you look at Wikipedia's list of landlocked countries, you will notice that DR Congo is not considered landlocked because it has 40 km of coastline. However, looking at a map, you will see that DR Congo is effectively landlocked. Furthermore, the "landlocked" countries of Western Europe seem to all be outliers in terms of GDP per capita on a purchasing power parity basis: Luxembourg (#3), Liechtenstein (#1), San Marino (#18), Switzerland (#19), and Vatican City (not ranked). In fact, if you were to only look at Western Europe, you would say that being landlocked is in fact an advantage. The only non-landlocked country in Western Europe with a higher rank than Switzerland is Ireland at #16 (and I have a feeling that they may have fallen a bit in the standings since 2009).

A Shallow Idea Visualized

David McCandless at Information is Beautiful has a graphic visualizing the fact that US adults spend 200 billion hours watching TV, while it only took 100 million hours to create Wikipedia. He introduces the graphic thus:
I was listening to writer Clay Shirky talk about cognitive surplus – the idea of spare brainpower in the world’s collective mind just sitting there waiting, wanting, to be harnessed.
I cannot believe that Clay Shirky would be so self-centred (not in the sense of vanity, but rather of lack of ability to see the world from others' perspectives) to believe that all those people watching TV would rather be spending their time under high cognitive workload, such as editing Wikipedia articles. I know that when I watch TV, it's because I don't want to think.

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

The Badder-Meinhoff Phenomenon Strikes Again

I was reading Christopher Hitchens in Slate, and stumbled upon the phrase "a Niagara of cloacal abuse". Having never previously encountered the word cloacal, I looked it up. It is either a "sewer", a "cesspool", or "the common chamber into which the intestinal and urogenital tracts discharge especially in monotreme mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, and elasmobranch fishes".
Later, I decided to watch the Futurama episode "30% Iron Chef", and Dr. Zoidberg says, "When the professor finds out, he'll tear me a new cloaca." And that is how I learned how to pronounce cloaca.

It's Not a Straw Man If People Are Arguing For It

Tearing into Ezra Klein's latest defense of the JournoList, Andrew Sullivan writes:
It's telling to me that he sets up a straw-man. There was no "conspiracy" on Journolist, so far as I can tell, and I haven't claimed there was.
Of course, other people have. A quick search reveals many such accusations. At Andrew Breitbart's Big Journalism, John Sexton wrote:
Turns out the real irony here is that people who viewed it as a “secretive conspiracy” were right.
At The American Thinker, Rick Moran:
The Daily Caller has acquired documents that show the conspiratorial nature of the list and its ability to massage and manipulate the news.
Over at beliefnet, Rod Dreher:
It is true that there is a sense of tribalism among some leading journalists on the Right that often prevents them from taking on conservative sacred cows, but I never saw anything remotely close to the Journolist conspiracy -- and would have been disgusted if I had, and left the room, so to speak.
I could go on. Sullivan is upset that Ezra Klein has not responded to Sullivan's complaints. This is a valid complaint. But then he argues that Klein is setting up a straw man. This is not true. He is arguing against a huge number of people who have claimed there was a conspiracy.

Monday, July 19, 2010

Following the NYT Style Guide

Silly Glenn... don't be daft. At issue is this passage by New York Times reporter Nina Bernstein:
Others named in the same warrant and caught by the Chinese police had described beatings, suffocation, electric shocks, sleep deprivation and other forms of torture to get them to disclose details about the human rights group to which they all belonged.
However, we know that the NYT does not allow calling beatings and sleep deprivation torture, as this would involve taking sides in a political dispute over what is and is not torture. What Bernstein ought to have written is this:
Others named in the same warrant and caught by the Chinese police had described beatings and sleep deprivation to get them to disclose details about the human rights group to which they all belonged. They also described suffocation, electric shocks, and other forms of torture.
It is unfortunate that Bernstein is such a poor reporter that she is unable to follow the NYT's own style guide.

Sunday, July 18, 2010

Who Do You Believe?

Scholars have since theorized that the $ sign evolved out of an abbreviation for peso: The plural for pesos was "ps," which eventually became "ps," and then simply an "S" with a single stroke denoting the "p." One early instance of the $ symbol crops up in a letter written by the merchant Oliver Pollock in 1778. Pollock also uses the "ps" abbreviation, making the letter a bridge between the two. The double-line through the S variation is less easily explained. Some believe they represent the twin pillars of Gibraltar depicted on the Spanish coat of arms. Others say it's shorthand for the letter "U" superimposed over the letter "S"—for U.S.
Since reading Atlas Shrugged, I thought that the latter explanation was the correct one:
Incidentally, do you know where that sign [the dollar sign] comes from? It stands for the initials of the United States.
Looking up this quote in Atlas Shrugged, I stumbled upon this hilarious quote:
Do you know that the United States is the only country in history that has ever used its own monogram as a symbol of depravity? Ask yourself why. Ask yourself how long a country that did that could hope to exist, and whose moral standards have destroyed it. It was the only country in history where wealth was not acquired by looting, but by production, not by force, but by trade...
Ah yes, America... the land where wealth was not acquired by force or looting, but by production and trade. You might want to ask the Native Americans about that one...

Friday, July 16, 2010

A False Equivalence

I know we're not supposed to trash right-wingers when they take on right-wing myths, but this article by Kevin D. Williamson is getting a lot of play in liberal blogs, and it's wrong.
Both are rooted in magical thinking: Naïve supply-siders believe tax cuts pay for themselves, naïve Keynesians believe spending pays for itself through the magic of the multiplier effect.
Well, it may be technically correct: naïve Keynesians may believe that "spending pays for itself through the magic of the multiplier effect." However, Keynesians who understand its theoretical underpinnings do not believe this. They believe that, during a severe downturn in demand, government can increase demand by spending money (stimulus). This spending must be temporary, so that as the recession ends, government spending returns to its previous level. As a result of the stimulus, the recession is shallower and does not last as long. As GDP returns to the pre-recession trendline, the country is richer than it would have been had the stimulus not occurred. Remember, however, that the country borrowed money to finance the stimulus. In the future, therefore, the government has to raise taxes to pay off that debt. Fortunately, the increase in taxes owed due to the stimulus is less than the increase in GDP due to the stimulus, so the country is richer than it would have been had the stimulus not occurred.