The annual analysis of Medicare's financial health released by the program's trustees on Aug. 5 led some Democrats to claim that Medicare's imminent bankruptcy has been delayed, thanks to the creation of their health entitlement program.Unfortunately, the first link goes to socialsecurity.gov, which is not generally the go-to resource for Medicare information. Not a good start. Ryan continues:
Last year's report revealed a $38 trillion shortfall over the next 75 years. This year the shortfall appears to have decreased, but only after the Democrats' health bill cut $529 billion from Medicare. This apparent improvement was the basis for Democratic celebration -- even though the program remains tens of trillions of dollars in the hole.I can't figure out from whence he got the $38 trillion number. If you go to the Medicare trustees' report for 2009 (pdf), you will find a 75-year "unfunded obligation" of $13.4 trillion for Medicare Part A (Hospital Insurance), $23.2 trillion for Part B (Medical Insurance), and $9.2 trillion for Part D (prescription drug plans). Adding the unfunded obligations for Part A and Part B (and ignoring Part D*) gives $36.6 trillion, which is pretty close to Ryan's figure.
Now, if you look at the Medicare trustees' report for 2010 (pdf), the corresponding numbers are $2.4 trillion for Part A, $17.7 trillion for Part B, and $9.7 trillion for Part D. The sum of unfunded obligations for Part A and Part B is $20.1 trillion.
The upshot of this year's report is that Obamacare knocked $16.5 trillion off of the unfunded obligations of Medicare. To Ryan, however, this doesn't count because... well, he doesn't really explain why.
* It's really funny that Ryan appears to be ignoring the cost of Medicare Part D. According to the actuaries, Part D has an unfunded obligation of $9.7 trillion, so you would think a deficit hawk would be concerned about the program. Of course, in 2003, Paul Ryan, self-proclaimed deficit hawk, voted for Part D. I'll leave the conclusions to you.
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